From Verdun to Nuremberg

Quid novi? (What’s New)

With all due respect, it seems that the times we are living through, in regards to the war in Ukraine, take us back to times and moments gone by. The apparent stabilization of the front and the call to judge those responsible for this conflict bear many similarities with past historical events. Although the Western media insist on a propagandistic rather than informative narrative, largely co-responsible for the continuation of this war, and continue to maintain the superiority of the Ukrainian forces and their forthcoming victory, the reality on the ground is different.

The recent visit of President Putin to the General Staff of the Russian Army where he was informed about the development of the military operations, and his visit to his Belarusian counterpart, Lukashenko, the visits of the Minister of Defense Shoigu and his second in command, General Gerasimov, suggest that in the coming days there will be some relevant event in the evolution of the conflict. According to the statements of the presidential office spokesman, Putin visited the front line in the Donbass. If he did so, something that remains to be confirmed, he did so in the manner that corresponds to his former role in the past, with total discretion. Nothing to do with Zelensky’s propagandistic visit that has been on the front page of all the media.

General winter has already made its appearance on the Ukrainian front. The cold is hardening the ground, which has been muddy up to now due to the numerous autumn rains, and the colder temperatures are beginning to take their toll on soldiers and equipment. However, despite this, the war continues its slow progress.

The Situation on the Fronts

A front line of more than 1,200 km, from Kharkov to Kherson, in which mainly two fronts stand out: Adviika in the region of Donetsk and Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), where the fiercest fighting is taking place between the Russian troops leading the offensive and the resistance and counter-offensive of a Ukrainian army in which more and more mercenaries from many countries are trying to make up for the casualties of Ukrainian soldiers. Although both Russians and Ukrainians are used to extreme climatic conditions, the foreign mercenaries fighting with the Ukrainians are not so accustomed, and in many cases lack the appropriate equipment to face such cold temperatures.

Since the arrival of General Surovikin, the Kherson front has been fortified, creating a defensive line in which there is a vast stretch of trenches and installations that make a landing and the access of armored vehicles impossible, maintaining a large artillery deployment. Up to four defensive lines have been established in that area, on the left bank of the Dnieper, which makes a Ukrainian offensive practically impossible. The Russians have limited themselves to continue shelling, from the other bank, a city deserted of its inhabitants, where the SBU is engaged in hunting down the so-called “collaborators” of the Russians previously denounced by their fellow citizens, some of whom have been killed with impunity—without being reported in the Western press.

In that part, the front has stabilized and is calm, and for now it is unlikely that the Russians are going to launch an offensive to regain the city; and it is more feasible that if they do, they will do so by coming down from the north on the right bank, once the issue of the Donbass front has been resolved. But one thing is clear, and that is that the Russians will not give up the Kherson Oblast and Zaparoje Oblast, which are already part of the territory of the Russian Federation, either because they recovered it by arms or by an agreement. Russia will never return to the borders prior to February 24, 2022.

On the Donbass fronts, where the progression on the part of the Russian Army is proceeding slowly, once the objectives are reached, a line of defense is quickly established, taking advantage of the strongholds won from the enemy. The similarity with the Verdun front in the First World War is remarkable. Trenches and fortifications on both sides, offensives and counter-offensives in small portions of terrain, deadly artillery duels and terrible environmental conditions. Tenacity, endurance and determination on each side, but above all the immolation of many Ukrainians just because it was decided to wage a war against Russia by proxy. Suffice it to recall the words of the infamous promoters of this war—”resist to the last Ukrainian!”

The Russians are maintaining the strategy implemented by the current Commander-in-Chief, Surovikin, and cede ground in exchange for preserving soldiers. The incorporation of a part of the mobilized Russian Army, already duly formed and trained, has complemented these trench positions, allowing the operational forces to continue their offensives. Of the 150,000 mobilized troops already sent to the fronts, 80,000 are integrated in the operational units, the rest in the close defense units. There are still another 150,000 mobilized troops who are continuing their education and training and who will probably be incorporated during this month, so that it would be possible to take advantage of this to launch a larger offensive.

As the Russian commanders maintain, the greater the training, the greater the chances of survival, an aspect neglected by the Ukrainians with their mobilized troops, which is causing a terrible increase in the number of deaths and wounded among their ranks. They hardly receive basic training when they are sent to the front. By the way, the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Oleskiy Reznikov, has already announced a new wave of mobilization for early 2023 to cover the casualties, and to facilitate the rotation of the troops stationed at the front; although he does not stop hunting for citizens of military age to give them the call-up, even in the most remote corners of the cities. Nor is he considering possible the demobilization of those who have already been in arms after a year of service, although he estimates that there are about one million people in arms at the moment.

No Christmas Truce

According to the latest information, Russia is not going to facilitate a Christmas truce, as it could be used by the Ukrainian Army to reinforce its troops and reorganize itself. For the Russians, it is not necessary. As the Russian President himself has recognized, the war is going to drag on and therefore cannot be stopped at the moment. The current priority is the liberation of the territory of Donbass, an objective set by the President himself in order to avoid the suffering that the citizens of Donetsk are undergoing with the indiscriminate bombings that have caused the deaths of more than 80 civilians since the beginning of the month, and which shamefully are not mentioned by the Western media. Something that has been happening since 2014.

Weapons sent by NATO countries, specifically HIMARS, are being used to kill civilians, including children, because there are no military targets in the center of the city. Just a day ago a hospital was bombed, hitting the children’s and oncological parts, killing one person without anyone commenting on it. Up to 40 missiles in less than 10 minutes were fired into the city center, where there are no military installations since before the beginning of the conflict because they are all on the front lines.

For its part, the Ukrainian Army justifies the shelling of the city of Donetsk because it is occupied by Russian troops! Nobody is appalled by this. However, when the Russians shell a strategic center and there is a civilian casualty, the news in the Western media is front page and heads all the news programs. Any death on both sides is a tragedy; but a different media treatment in each case or its concealment is unacceptable. Cowardice prevails and serves the interests of some.

It is curious, if not indecent, the information on the Russian bombing of targets that constitute strategic targets to weaken the Ukrainian Army. Most of them are power plants or fuel depots, which have collateral effects on the functioning of certain civil infrastructures, such as the supply of light and water to the population, or the functioning of heating systems. Nobody remembers that the Ukrainian government cut off water and electricity for 8 years to the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, and to the Crimean Peninsula, since the latter declared its accession to the Russian Federation. Still the city of Donetsk suffers from water cuts and many parts of the city lack heating and nobody comments on it; and yet its citizens suffer from it daily. In this case, the Russian Army seeks to weaken the Ukrainian Army and the shelling of infrastructures is a primordial element to achieve its objective, as is the shelling of military installations and command posts or centers of production and repair of military equipment.

The then comedian, now president, mocked on TV the inhabitants of Crimea because they had no water, and they had been like that until Russia built salt water treatment plants and managed to reopen the Crimean canal sabotaged by the Ukrainians.

Nobody wants to remember the words of the then NATO spokesman Jamie Shea on May 25, 1999, justifying the bombing of the power plants, depriving more than 70% of the Serbian population of water and electricity, claiming that they were military targets because they supplied electricity to the control and command systems of the Serbian Army.

Verdun or the Alamo?

Once again the media omits to provide the enormity of the casualties that are occurring in the ranks of the Ukrainian Army—about 400 dead per day and between 2,000 and 3,000 wounded according to data provided by analysts and specialists, mostly Americans, something which confirms the statements made by General Mike Miller, Chief of Staff of the American Army, when he recently said that the Ukrainians had more than 100,000 dead since the beginning of the conflict, although later, in view of the enormity of the data and criticism, he wanted to rectify it and said that they were losses which would include dead and wounded. The President of the Commission herself, Ursula Van Der Layen, also acknowledged the same figure, although she quickly withdrew the comment from social media for the same reason.

The Ukrainian commanders abandon their dead on the battlefield, giving them up as missing, and it is the Russians who, prior to their identification, have to bury them in a Christian manner as happened in Izium in summer, even if they were later accused of genocide. In this way the relatives will never receive the corresponding compensations, as they are simply listed as missing. One more aspect of the corruption that prevails in the Ukrainian government. More than 35,000 military personnel are listed as missing in the files of the Ukrainian Army who are not considered as having fallen in combat, as it has recently come to light due to the hacking of these files.

The number of dead Ukrainian troops is really important. The number of wounded is also significant. Most of them are from artillery explosions and less from direct clashes. The hospitals near the front line are overcrowded and there is no more room for the wounded. Many combatants die on the front line because they cannot be transferred to the rear due to the incessant bombardment to which they are subjected, so that in many cases the tourniquets that are made to avoid hemorrhages become a lethal instrument or they bleed to death on the spot. In some units, up to 70% of their troops have been casualties and have not been withdrawn from the front, resisting the onslaught of the Russians. To get an idea, the NATO criterion by which a unit is considered to be replaced is 10% to a maximum of 15%.

The situation in Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) according to the Ukrainian commanders themselves is Dantesque, and the area is already known among the Russians as “the meat grinder” because of the number of casualties among the Ukrainian troops as a result of the shelling they are suffering from mortar and grenade fire on the front lines and artillery when they try to approach reinforcements. However, the Western media refer in the same way to the same area, because it is there that Russian troops are sent to dislodge the Ukrainians from their trenches without mentioning that there are far fewer casualties in the Russian ranks.

It must be taken into account that while the Ukrainian artillery supplied by NATO is more precision artillery and smaller in proportion, the Russian artillery is more abundant and is used more massively, covering more land, although it is insisted that the Russians have practically exhausted their stock of ammunition.

Despite being aware of the situation they are in, Ukrainian commanders advised by NATO officers continue to send reinforcements, preventing a withdrawal that would save lives. This situation is causing the morale of the Ukrainian troops to fade little by little—but it is also beginning to take its toll on the German and Polish mercenaries (more than 15,000 Germans belonging to a private company) who refuse to carry out offensives in view of the extreme risk to which they are being subjected. The last declarations of the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, asked for the approval of a law which would toughen the punishment of deserters even to the maximum penalty, if they are on the front line.

Soldiers of Fortune

Both in Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and in Avdiivka the weight of the offensives is carried by the troops of the Wagner private company and the Chechen special troops, supported by the militias (today already integrated in the Russian Army). They are faced by the Ukrainian troops mostly made up at this time by mercenaries from various countries, but mainly Poles, Anglo-Americans, some Spanish-Americans and Germans. The Russian forces testify to more and more corpses of black people when they take some stronghold, as well as to radio conversations in English, Polish or German.

According to testimonies of these foreign mercenaries, appearing in the Ukrainian social networks, there is a strong dissatisfaction about the conduct of operations and complaints about the lack of artillery and aviation support, with some even refusing to carry out the firefights planned by the high command because they consider that they are being sent to be butchered. The salaries of these mercenaries are very high, between $1,000 and $2,000 a day, which is attractive for many adventurers, although the type of war they have been confronted with in Ukrainian territory differs a lot from the operation theaters where they have been rendering their services until now. They face different scenarios and different adversaries.

On the Russian side are the men of the Wagner private group, whose number is unknown but could be in the region of 10,000 men. Former professional soldiers from the special units of the Russian Army, hired with salaries higher than those paid in the Army and with additional bonuses, they are perfectly equipped and have their own armored escort vehicles, mobile artillery, helicopters and even aviation, which allows them to maneuver autonomously, although in coordination with the Russian high command. This unit, formed mostly by Russian personnel, although the existence of an American unit commanded by a former general of the American Army has been mentioned, has a strong patriotic sentiment which makes them even more combative.

Lately, about one or two hundred prisoners with sentences of more than 15 years, with the consent of the Russian Prosecutor’s Office, have also joined it, and they were offered the possibility of redeeming their sentences by obtaining their freedom at the end of the conflict if they enlisted. After intensive and hard military training, to which all members of the unit, regardless of their origin, are obliged to undergo, they were sent to the front. Some of them have already paid the price of blood and others have been distinguished for their heroic deeds.

At present the Wagnerians, as they are called, bear the burden of the conquest of the city of Bakhmut, an objective that was assigned to them at the time and which they did not manage to seize, although now it seems they are achieving it.

Artyomovsk or Bakhmut as we want to call it, is at the moment the new Mariupol. The fiercest fighting is taking place there, with the Ukrainians resisting with particular courage. The capture of the city could mean a radical change in the course of the war. Although from the Ukrainian and NATO side they will try to minimize the effects that its loss can suppose, from the Russian side it is understood that its conquest will be the key for a significant advance, taking into account that subsequent Ukrainian defense lines are at a considerable distance, and that it would allow the encirclement of a large part of the Ukrainian forces present in the area.

The Arms Market

While on the Russian side the logistical supply is assured, on the Ukrainian side it is becoming scarce due to the difficulty of getting it to the front, and to the fact that the supplying countries are already running out of stocks and are putting their own defense at risk. Regarding the latter, NATO is reactivating old Soviet-era ammunition and armament manufacturing factories in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. While the Ukrainians fire between 2,000 and 3,000 shells a day the Russians fire between 30,000 and 40,000 shells a day on all fronts. It should be remembered that the famous American M777s have a NATO standard use of 400 shells per day, so that about 30% of these pieces are damaged by the intensive use to which they are subjected, with the problems involved in their repair outside Ukrainian territory, mainly in Poland, the Baltic States or the Czech Republic.

Even in this situation in which its army finds itself, the Ukrainian Government sells weapons to African countries (there is a catalog with more than 970 pages circulating on the dark net) among them some coming from US shipments, maintaining its position in the arms trafficking market initiated at the time of its independence from the USSR in 1991. For their part, the Anglo-Americans periodically remind the Ukrainians that the arms shipments they send them come at a price and that they will have to pay back these loans: Business is business! The price to pay is very high now and in the future.

Until now HIMARS were a difficulty for the Russian defenses; but as a result of the seizure of this material during the fighting or by the sale of it by the corrupt Ukrainian military, Russian technicians have been able to examine the functioning of the system (GPS) and consequently have developed a whole series of countermeasures that have considerably diminished its effectiveness and the result of this is being seen on the battlefield.

The Art of War

The war that is developing in Ukraine, is a war of high intensity in which infantry, armored, artillery and aviation intervene jointly in great proportion, over a great extent of territory. Something that in the West had been set aside in the configuration of their armies, so they bet more on a reduced army with smaller but lighter units.

The Ukrainian army, mainly instructed by Americans, British and Canadians, has adopted in its offensives on the ground the so-called COIN (Counter Insurgency Operations) tactic, which consists of reduced units moving in light vehicles, mostly pickups, on which mortars are adapted, and which penetrate at high speed into the Russian lines, without previous artillery preparation to favor the surprise factor and neither with the support of armored vehicles initially. While the terrain has allowed this, this tactic has had a good result. When the weather conditions have changed, it has been a different story.

This tactic employed in the middle and end of the summer initially surprised the Russian forces, and which favored the Ukrainian offensives that recaptured large stretches of land, entering deep into the zone controlled by the Russians who were retreating so as not to be surrounded. This maneuver, however, left the Ukrainian forces uncovered as they were not followed by armor and artillery, and the Russians took advantage of this to reduce them with intense artillery fire, causing a considerable number of casualties. The surprise factor has disappeared and the Russians now know how to proceed when they encounter this type of operation. The Ukrainian forces trained in NATO countries, for their part, complain about the level of instruction of the foreign trainers whom in many cases they surpass in terms of combat experience, especially in urban areas.

For its part, the Russian army continues to maneuver conservatively: Artillery and air preparation in advance, assault with armored vehicles with 30mm guns and heavy armored vehicles, and an infantry that makes use of anti-tank weapons to dislodge the enemy in urban areas.

The use of observation drones is playing a fundamental role in the evolution of this war. If at the beginning of the conflict, the Ukrainians had clearly superior numbers to the Russians, the situation is now reversed. The Russian troops have a considerable number of these drones, and they use them to locate the concentration of enemy troops, to examine their defense lines, to fix their positions or the location of their artillery and consequently to beat their positions with artillery before making the assault.

On the other hand, at a time when artillery is characterized by its mobility on the ground to avoid detection, it is essential to have it located in the shortest possible time to destroy it, and that job is done by observation drones. Until now, this work was mainly carried out by aviation or infantry vanguard units with the risk that this entailed.

Similarly, the Russian army is incorporating electronic warfare equipment to neutralize Ukrainian drones with good results, although the militias still do not have them in their ranks.
The Second Stage

Russian forces have begun a second stage in their bombardment to demilitarize Ukraine. Tactical missile bombardment of power plants, fuel depots, factories and ammunition depots is being carried out quite effectively. To this end, the Russians launch low-cost Iranian-made drones in swarms beforehand, which causes Ukrainian air defense radars to light up and they are then detected by Russian systems and immediately destroyed by tactical missiles. Once the air defense in the area has been suppressed, the latest generation strategic tactical missiles are launched.

Logistics

As for the logistical aspect, major changes have taken place. In the Russian army, the deficiencies in the supply of ammunition and materiel have been corrected, which favors the supply to the front lines in a smooth and permanent way. The same is not true on the Ukrainian side. The shelling of electric power infrastructures greatly hinders transportation from the border areas, while the destruction of factories for the production or repair of materiel prevents a rapid replenishment of the front line.

In addition to all this, the delivery by NATO allies of materiel is increasingly diminishing, both because of the depletion of their stocks inherited from the Soviet era and because of the need to maintain their own strategic reserves. The NATO allies are also unwilling to transfer state-of-the-art weapons because of the distrust that they could be sold to the Russians, given the high level of corruption in the Ukrainian armed forces, and consequently their secrets could be revealed.

Although many countries are benefiting from this situation, the main beneficiary is the American arms industry, although, curiously, South Korea is positioning itself quite well also in this.

As for the operation and use of the equipment on both sides, things are also different. Russian equipment, although less technologically advanced, is characterized by its robustness, easy maintenance and repeated use; but above all by its proven resistance to extremely cold temperatures. On the other hand, the NATO materiel suffers from the cold; its fluids clog badly and seize the mechanisms of vehicles and artillery pieces; this materiel is not ready for the intensity of use to which the Ukrainians subject it, and it often requires a very specialized handling that is difficult to master in a month of training. The stinger or javelin batteries discharge rapidly in cold temperatures, making them unusable in the winter period. Ultimately, the old RPG is more effective on the battlefield.

A Long-Term War

Whether there will be a winter offensive or several separate offensives, where and in what proportion we will probably see soon. It is significant that Putin has postponed his annual speech to the Assembly until after the New Year and has visited his General Staff and his Belarusian neighbor. Perhaps he wants to announce the purpose of the expected offensive, the start of negotiations, or simply to confirm the prolongation of the conflict with its social and economic consequences. In any case, there is little chance of a truce during these winter months.

A New Nuremberg Trial?

Who Should Sit in the Dock

A few days ago, the President of Ukraine, Mr. Zelensky, again in the media campaign after having obtained 1 billion euros from the French President Macron, asked the various Western leaders to envisage the setting up of a special international criminal court to try Russian political and military leaders for war crimes. Previously, the French President had already stated what he defined as genocide, namely the Russian bombardment of energy infrastructures, resulting in power cuts for civilians. This is nothing new, since the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) had already called for the establishment of such a court this spring. The chorus of Western politicians and institutions calling for the establishment of such a court is already more like a choir. Biden himself had already opened the floodgates right at the beginning of the conflict by saying that Putin was a murderer and that he would pay the price for it.

The level of cynicism of the leaders of NATO countries calling for this tribunal is unprecedented and astounding. Not only because of the track record of many of them for their interventions without any kind of legitimacy, but also because of the terrible consequences they have brought about, destabilizing vast areas in different continents, ruining entire economies, provoking ethnic and religious conflicts, persecutions and genocides. That they are the ones who are now demanding these tribunals is repulsive. They have lost all decency and lack morals.

The shamelessness with which Merkel admitted that there was no intention to negotiate anything but only to gain time for Ukraine to join NATO makes her an accomplice in the provocation of the conflict. Porochenko denying from the first day after the signing of the Minsk agreements and encouraging the shelling of civilians in the Donbass republics, Macron urging the cessation of hostilities without having previously read the agreements in which France was the guarantor of their fulfillment, Holande failing to keep his word to enforce the agreements signed in Minsk—all of them are responsible for this war as perpetrators or accomplices—agreements that by their non-compliance generated more than 14,000 dead, including 110 children and 80,000 wounded since 2014.

The only intention, now confessed without any remorse, was to gain time to arm the Ukrainian army, to integrate Ukraine into NATO, and thus impose its conditions on an isolated and socially and economically weakened Russia as a result of the imposition of sanctions each time more and more senseless and incoherent as we observe as time goes by.

The culprits are Zelensky himself elected because he committed himself to negotiate with the secessionist republics; Boris Jonhson for preventing the holding of peace negotiations when the war could still have been stopped; Mrs. Ursula Van del Layen totally corrupt for censoring media and using her European “credit card” to deliver millions to buy weapons that end up in mafia circles; Borrel promoting and applying sanctions to the Russian economy that we will all end up paying for. All of them are directly responsible for this war.

Not to mention the leaders of the Baltic States and Poland, whose visceral Russophobia they take advantage of to discriminate against the population of Russian origin by depriving them of all their rights and censoring their media, without questioning in any way the right to freedom of expression, or the violation of human rights when citizens of Russian origin are deprived of the most elementary rights of access to public services. Incidentally, there is no mention about this in the Western media—and Europe is supposed to be the guarantor of human rights into which they are all integrated.

The Obama, Clinton, Biden clan, promoters of orange revolutions and of the Maidan events, installing corrupt governments and promoting xenophobic groups with explicitly Nazi ideology who brought torture and genocide for the population of Eastern Ukraine and imposed a culture of hatred not only towards the Russian people but even towards other ethnic minorities, Hungarians or Romanians, deserve a special mention. Installing research laboratories for bacteriological warfare in a clandestine manner in the style of the Nazi medical murderers in the concentration camps, although later acknowledging their existence shamelessly, but without saying what kind of experiment they were engaged in. Namely, whether or not lethal experiments were carried out among the population to test their efficacy.

Others, however, have adopted a low profile; keeping silent, they have cowardly accepted and endorsed all these developments. They have not raised their voices to stop and denounce a course that has led us to the events we are witnessing, lest they lose their perks.

None of them have prevented this conflict; in the same way that none has spoken out for both parties to sit down at a negotiating table. On the contrary, they have only been heard giving ultimatums and threats of sanctions, while promoting the sending of weapons and money for their purchase in exorbitant amounts. With their position, the only thing they are causing is a prolongation of a war that is bleeding a country, causing the extermination of several generations and an economic ruin from which Ukraine will hardly ever recover, if its neighbors, today complacent allies, have not each appropriated their share.

All of them are the real culprits of this war—and they are the ones who should be put on trial for war crimes and for the deaths that are taking place. If our western societies had enough information, without censorship, and were not misinformed by the continuous media propaganda promoted by incompetent leaders, and knew what is really happening to the Ukrainian people, they would take to the streets to stop this bloodletting. So many deaths are unacceptable, so much suffering for the population is unbearable, although, of course, they are not ours. The belligerent posture in which all the progressive forces have positioned themselves is striking, who in other times demonstrated for a “No” to war.

Broken Ties

When this war will end, we don’t know. We should be aware that the Russians are not going to negotiate; they are going to impose their conditions; and the longer this conflict lasts, the harsher those conditions will be. They will not give up the territories recently annexed to the Russian Federation, and who knows if they will not give up the territories they may conquer. In any case, we will not see again the Ukraine with the borders of 1991.

A fact that has gone totally unnoticed in the Western media has been the term in which recently President Putin in his speech justifying the attacks on energy infrastructures has referred to Ukraine; he named it as “the neighboring country.” He did not say “close” or “fraternal” as up to now. It was a radical change of attitude, perhaps as a result of his weariness with the insistence of Zelensky and his NATO allies to continue a war that they will not win. However, he has returned to the terms of fraternal ties in a recent speech when referring to the ties that unite Russians and Ukrainians, blaming the West for their deterioration, resisting that centuries of common history, culture and religion be forgotten.

But despite the historical existence of these fraternal, cultural and religious ties, the reality that the Russians are discovering is that these ties are no longer so clear, and that a part of the Ukrainian population during this last decade has succumbed to the cultural and ideological indoctrination promoted by successive governments and their henchmen, the paramilitary groups of Nazi ideology; and that hatred towards Russia and the Russians has settled inside them. One more example of this persecution of everything Russian is the banning of the Orthodox Church under the Moscow Patriarchate. Monasteries and churches are being raided and their clergymen arrested for collaboration; and the situation is very reminiscent of the time of the Nazi occupation when Bandera’s followers inflicted terror on the rest of the population. It is enough to reread history to see that we are in the same situation. Nothing is said about this, either.

Although the Russians do not have the same feeling of hatred towards the Ukrainians, they no longer consider the fraternity they used to have towards the Ukrainian people. The estrangement is becoming more and more visible, and it is not at all clear whether it can ever be reversed, either by one or the other. In all likelihood, this rift will never be healed.

The Russian intelligence services made a serious mistake believing that in the Ukrainian army they would find former colleagues from the Soviet era and that they would understand each other in order to reach a quick agreement. The reality has been totally different since 2014—it is an entirely NATO-ized army, in which there has been a symbiosis between elements of paramilitary forces of openly declared Nazi groups and the rest of the Army. Their behavior in the areas they have accessed is that of a foreign army of occupation, using the civilian population as hostages to defend their positions, by preventing their evacuation. as happened in Mariupol.

There Will be No Concessions

Perhaps, the Americans are already thinking that they have achieved their goals, to restrain Europe and maintain their economic stranglehold, although they have not defeated Russia economically, and they are thinking of sitting Zelensky at a negotiating table, although he is resisting for the time being.

If not, what are the recent trips of Mrs. Nuland to Kiev, or the insistence of Macron to talk to Putin, who by the way does not pick up his phone, or the recommendation of Xi Jinping that there should be a negotiating table. The Russians have already said that they are ready to negotiate, but indeed under the current conditions; which means that the incorporation of the territories that voted their annexation to the Russian Federation must be recognized as a premise. The conditions will be imposed by the Russians, because they no longer trust liars and thieves; nor will the Asians, Africans, South Americans or Middle Easterners who have seen how the West does not keep its word and shamelessly appropriates other people’s property. No one will want to be the next victim.

An armistice could be what is signed, although unlike the Peace of Panmunjom between the two Koreas. In this case, there will be the new borders, with the territories annexed to the Russian Federation, and the creation of a demilitarized zone of a hundred kilometers—which will have to be recognized. And of course a commitment to neutrality, without the possibility of joining supranational organizations, such as NATO or the European Union.

If a negotiation is imposed, it will be tough for Zelensky, because his Nazi cubs have promised him a bullet in the head if he gave in to negotiations as happened to the first negotiators at the beginning of the conflict—and his American mentors are not known for their unswerving loyalty. In the end, perhaps the Russians might be the only ones who could save his life, albeit probably in a penal colony in faraway Siberia.

In conclusion, who should be tried and convicted?

Eugenio de Dobrynine. Officer of the French Navy (retired). Lawyer, Member of the Union de la Noblesse Russe. Общество Памяти Императорской Гвардиии (Association du Souvenir de la Garde Imperiale Russe). Diploma of General University Studies in Law (D.E.U.G.), from the University of Paris-Nanterre. Degree in Law (UCM). Diploma in European Communities Law (UCM). Diploma in Business Consultancy (UCM). Higher Technical Expert in Foreign Trade (ICADE). Diploma in Prevention and Road Safety (Instituto MAPFRE de Seguridad). Analyst and lecturer.

Featured: Soldiers, anonymous.

“Russia has Lost the War”

So says Western media… And if all we do is listen to what is published in the West and listen to what the various “strategists” say on all the talk-shows, we would come to the following conclusions:

  • Russia has lost the war, with the capture of Kherson by the Ukrainian army and its offensives in the north of the Donbass.
  • The casualties among the ranks of the Russian army are very considerable and it is demoralized, its generals are incompetent and are dying at the front, if they are not dismissed and arrested.
  • The Russian army has practically no more ammunition left to continue the war and its missiles are unable to reach their targets, thanks to the excellent Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense that intercepts them. And Russia is also running out of missiles.
  • The Ukrainian army has reconquered territory in the Kherson region and its offensives in the north of Donbass, as well as its resistance on the Donetsk front, augur a clear victory of its army which will lead them to reconquer all the territory annexed by Russia, including, of course, Crimea, forcing Russia to sign a peace which will lead its current president, Vladimir Putin, to be tried and sentenced and make recompense for all the expenses undertaken because of the conflict.
  • As for the Russian people, they do not want this war and hope for a quick replacement of their president by one of the opposition leaders, who will be much more liberal and supported by the United States and Europe.
  • Faced with this disaster, Putin and his generals have resorted to wild, indiscriminate shelling of the Ukrainian population, leaving these people without electricity, water and supplies. The Russians do not rule out the use of nuclear weapons, if things get even worse.

Such is the picture painted by the European and Anglo-American mass media, although it must be acknowledged that the latter are making an effort to provide other, more objective analyses in view of the latest developments in the conflict. The intellectual laziness of many information professionals, who limit themselves to reproducing the propaganda reports of Zelensky’s government, if not submitting to the doxa dictated by the media management bodies, as well as the censorship imposed by the authorities and pressure groups, prevent a more impartial knowledge of the real situation of the conflict.

To begin with, Russia cannot lose this war, nor can it give up the territories that since the referendums have been incorporated into the Russian Federation. First of all, it is a question of survival in the face of the Anglo-American world’s determination to put an end to the existence of a Russia that opposes its hegemonic domination and that, on the contrary, is committed to a multipolar world where a balance of forces coexists. Secondly, the Russian society, and even more so the recently annexed populations, and in particular the Donbass regions which have suffered a war for eight years, would never accept to stop being part of Russia.

As for the situation on the ground, if we look at the development of events from the information provided by objective military specialists and analysts, some even coming from armies committed to Ukrainian interests, since the appointment of General Surovikin as Commander-in-Chief of the Armies in the Ukrainian campaign, things have changed quite a lot. His appointment has meant a single command, subordinating the rest of the generals who earlier directed the operations in each of the territories where they acted independently and without coordination with the rest. Since his appointment, a reorganization of the troops assigned to the operation has been carried out, rotating them after the attrition suffered during these nine months of war and reinforcing their material, in particular with artillery pieces and armored vehicles, and massively incorporating observation and destruction drones.

From the tactical point of view, Russia has no need, as Surovikin himself stated, to expose its soldiers uselessly, when it has other means at its disposal to win this war. Russia, because of its demographic situation, cannot afford to send hundreds of thousands of young men to the front, as the Soviets did in World War II, with the result that that entailed. The use of tactical missiles directed against military installations and recently against strategic infrastructures, whose effectiveness is difficult to refute in view of the express acknowledgement by the Ukrainian authorities themselves, is bringing about a substantial change in the course of this conflict.

What some media have considered as a defeat and a withdrawal of the Russian army in Kherson, has been in reality a tactical withdrawal to avoid exposing a significant part of its troops who could have been surrounded in a compromising situation, and thus to better defend themselves. It has been sold that the Ukrainians had defeated the Russians and that this meant that they had practically won the war. The reality is that the Russians have temporarily ceded ground to regroup and organize themselves. They have abandoned the city, transforming it into a ghost town without electricity or water and with a population, albeit a very small one, which the Ukrainian troops will have to feed. At the same time, they have moved, in a successful operation, to the other bank of the Dnieper, turning the river into a natural line of defense very difficult to cross, since at this time, its width is about two kilometers.

So much so that in spite of the fact that the operation had been announced in advance by Surovikin himself, something surprising for a military commander, the Ukrainian forces did not give him credit and delayed their entry into the city until they were certain that it had been abandoned by the Russians, as they believed that it was all a trap. The withdrawal was made without loss of material or men and in an orderly manner, despite the fact that more than 20,000 men were mobilized. Previously, more than 150,000 civilians had been evacuated from the city to the other side, under Ukrainian artillery shelling. They even moved the remains of the founder of the city and mythical person in the history of Russia, Marshal Potemkin, so that his remains would not be desecrated by the Ukrainian troops. Clear proof of this is that we have not seen those images of casualties or destroyed materials that the Ukrainian propaganda media lavished so much on when, at the beginning, they confronted the Russian forces. What has been seen, on the contrary, is a deserted city whose population is trying to survive in hardship and which has been announced that it will be evacuated because of the impossibility of supplying it, while the repressive rearguard forces are engaged in arresting the Russians’ collaborators. In their military history, the Russians have a long experience of strategic retreats that have been successful.

Located on the other bank of the river, with the natural barrier of its width and the difficulty of crossing it under artillery fire, the Russian troops have a considerable advantage. So much so that part of the troops assigned at the time to this front have been transferred to the Donbass front to reinforce the offensive which is being carried out there and which, little by little, is gaining ground despite the difficulty of overcoming the lines of fortifications built by the Ukrainians more than eight years ago and which they have been defending with extraordinary courage and tenacity.

The mobilization of reservists decreed last September and the enlistment of volunteers means the incorporation of 318,000 soldiers and commanders directly on the front line. Unlike the mobilized Ukrainians, who are already in their seventh or eighth mobilization with hardly any training, these troops are undergoing intense military training by veterans of the operation, so that their incorporation will be carried out when they have completed their training and proven their operational capacity. As of today, about 80,000 of them have already joined the front lines, integrating into already hardened units. The rest will do so by mid-December. There has been no haste, and their training is being prioritized to avoid casualties and strengthen their effectiveness.

Meanwhile, on other fronts, Donetsk and Lugansk, Russian troops are advancing slowly, favoring artillery fire both when advancing and retreating, avoiding unnecessary exposure of men and material. The use of observation drones for the localization of enemy forces is being abundantly employed, with excellent results, as this allows for accurate and effective artillery fire. There is abundant filming that proves their use and effectiveness. The practical non-existence of Ukrainian aviation, because it was cancelled at the beginning, and the little effectiveness of its anti-aircraft defenses, in spite of receiving new Western materials, makes Russian aviation have control of the skies and intervene more and more in support of the troops on the ground. Although the equipment provided is not always of the latest generation, the technological complexity also requires trained servants when it comes to more modern systems, which is why the Russians are suspicious of the involvement of NATO troops who covertly handle such equipment.

The Russians are expected to carry out a major offensive when weather conditions permit, i.e., when the ground freezes, because now, with the heavy rains, it is impracticable. The Ukrainians are suffering to a greater extent, because much of the material sent by the Ottoman allies, replacing the Soviet material they had and have been losing, is wheeled, unlike the Russian material, in which tracks predominate. The priority will undoubtedly be focused on recovering the territories of the Donbass up to its territorial limits and, perhaps, on descending from above along the right bank of the Dnieper to recover the territories of Zaporiyia and Kherson. Who knows if they will not go on to Odessa. Nor can the Russians afford to delay their offensive too long, because the longer they delay, the more time the Ukrainian army will have to mobilize and train its levies.

On the other hand, the destruction, by means of tactical missiles, of energy infrastructures, especially power plants and sub-power plants, by the Russian forces, is having considerable effects on the deterioration of the supply on the material fronts, since it prevents their transfer from the borders, slowing down their offensives and weakening their defenses. Although its effects are being felt to a greater extent on the living conditions of civilians, depriving them of electricity and water, the destruction of these infrastructures was something that Russian military officials had been demanding for some time in view of the increase in military aid received by the Ukrainian army from its NATO allies.

Finally, as far as casualties are concerned, the number of deaths in the ranks of the Ukrainian army is staggering. According to American officials, there are about 100,000 dead, to which must be added the wounded in the proportion of three for every one dead. This means that, between the dead and the wounded, they are losing between 300 and 400 men a day on the various fronts. Russian losses are around 48,000 wounded and 16,000 dead, 8,000 of which belong to the Russian army and the rest to the territorial units, Chechen forces and the Wagner group. It should be borne in mind that the brunt of the war has so far been carried out by the territorial units of the Donbass and the special forces on their respective fronts. Initially, the Russian army have started the conflict with between 125,000 and 150,000 troops, to which were added about 60,000 mobilized between the territorial troops of the Donbass and the Chechen special forces and the Wagner Group, with 10,000 troops each. For its part, the Ukrainian army numbered about 600,000 men at the beginning of the conflict. According to UN data, more than 10,000 civilians were killed between the two sides during the eight months of the conflict.

We will probably soon witness a change in the situation, both on the ground and politically, although the media and talk show hosts with careers in the offices of Brussels or NATO headquarters tell us that the Ukrainian army is going to win this war and that they will force Russia to return the annexed territories. American officials have already suggested to Zelensky that he should reconsider negotiating with Russia, and we know that he who pays the piper calls the tune, and American governments have never been known for their unswerving loyalty to the leader of the day. Rather, they have been dedicated to defending their own interests.

Eugenio de Dobrynne writes for El Manifesto, through whose courtesy this article appears.