After the Rebellion: The Bifurcation Point

I have noticed that the consciousness of many simply cannot cope with the events of June 24. Therefore, a trend appears: “It simply did not exist;” “nothing was real;” “it was all done on purpose.” Only in this way can the acute pain of what happened be dulled. And when it comes to the defensive reaction of society in general, not particularly immersed in the sphere of meaning—in this case, the meaning of political science, it is understandable and acceptable: people look for loopholes in the continuous routine flow of life, in which events are either microscopic or non-existent. But when the same is conveyed by those who consider themselves serious analysts, it only seems pathetic. In fact, the acute phase of the events of June 24 has been resolved, but still nothing is completely over: now it is necessary for the government to act concretely, which will clarify things and, even then can it be considered to be a minimum of clarity. For now, perhaps, it is too early to comment on the meaning; the whole process is not yet finished, so the outcome may be different. After all, what has begun and what continues will only make sense when it is finished—not before. You never know what else can happen during such a critical chain of events. A full analysis is yet to follow.

However, what happened on June 24, 2023, was the first note of a monstrous disaster. It was a disaster of Russian statehood, which, however, was avoided at the last moment, and the price was very high.

In the midst of these events, the problem of passion became crystal clear. When there is no trace of passion in the center of the system, it begins to spontaneously concentrate on the periphery. On one side, we clearly see an excess of passion. But, on the other side, its obvious disadvantage. What we see is that the main problem of the government is energy. And that problem must be solved. Without delay.

In terms of Pareto’s theory of elites, all this can be described as a conflict between elites and counter-elites.

If the elite, which is already in power, does not have enough qualities to exercise power, it will, sooner or later, be overthrown by the counter-elite, which is not in power, but has an excess of those qualities that are needed to exercise power.

And in the end, the question of legality and legitimacy remained. The rebels did significantly radicalize this problem, but they only posed it. No ultimate solution was reached. And now that problem is with us, and it won’t go away.

We have reached a turning point. To the point of bifurcation. Broadly speaking, there are two decision scenarios: Good and Terrible. In this complex situation, there is no only-good, just as there is no only-bad. A bad scenario immediately escalates into a terrible one.

1. Good scenario: Personnel solutions in a number of the most important administrations. Almost everything is obvious here. Some proved to be heroes, some traitors and cowards. Unconditional heroes are Putin and Lukashenko. It was they who saved the nation, which was hanging over the abyss. And, those who made something like this possible, who contributed to it and who could not prevent what started and were not able to react in an appropriate way—they should be let go immediately. Such a decision will strengthen the position of the supreme authority and restore the shaken trust and faith in the power of the true Sovereign.

Accordingly, attention should also be paid to the general program, which Prigozhin published from top to bottom: the social elites seriously lack fairness, honor, courage and intelligence. They are missing to the point that it literally leads to actual blow-ups. Why, then, would this idea not be used in the service of the authorities themselves? Putin is now (as always) in a position to do it, and he will certainly succeed. So:

  • elite rotation,
  • punish cowards and traitors,
  • encourage the faithful and brave,
  • correction of ideology towards patriotic self-awareness, social justice and immediate involvement of society in the war.

Less PR, more reality. And everything will fall into place.

In general, replacing reality with PR is absolutely evil. Sooner or later, such a bubble will burst. If instead of a political system we only have a grandiose media fiction, then disaster is inevitable. And, what is most important: the laws of lies make them, sooner or later, believe their own lies. That’s the last stage. After that, it’s the end.

2. Terrible scenario: Leave everything as it is. Do not change anything. Remove all mention of June 24 and all participants from the media and blogosphere. Criminalize any call to patriotism, call for rebellion. Blame the West and its machinations for everything. Draw a conclusion in favor of liberalism and flood everyone with PR technologies about victory.

I would not want to scare anyone, but I suggest that everyone soberly imagine the consequences of such a decision, which is, in fact, the absence of any solution. It is this (lack of resolution) that led to what happened. If nothing changes, the disaster will happen again, but then it will be fatal.

Those with more passion win. The spirit wins. There are soldiers and there are warriors. The task: to awaken the warriors in the soldiers.

Worse for us, if we learn the wrong lesson from this “master class.”

Now we have to pull ourselves together. The enemy begins the second most powerful wave of the offensive. The only way to defeat the rebellion of “Wagner” is to become “Wagner” ourselves.

Alexander Dugin is a widely-known and influential Russian philosopher. His most famous work is The Fourth Political Theory (a book banned by major book retailers), in which he proposes a new polity, one that transcends liberal democracy, Marxism and fascism. He has also introduced and developed the idea of Eurasianism, rooted in traditionalism. This article appears through the kind courtesy of Geopolitica.

Featured: At the Edge of the Pine Forest, Ivan Shishkin; painted in 1897.